How do industrial land transfer modes impact carbon emissions? An intermediation perspective based on industrial structure.

Industrial land is currently the main carrier and important source of global carbon emissions, and as the world's largest developing country, China's large-scale and diversified industrial land supply has made it the world's largest carbon emitter. Therefore, researching the impact of different supply methods of industrial land on carbon emissions and its impact paths in China can help provide a reference for other countries to reduce carbon emissions from the perspective of urban industrial land management, which is of great significance for effectively promoting global carbon reduction. Based on this, this paper analyses the impact of different supply methods of industrial land on carbon emissions and its urban heterogeneity using the SYS-GMM and chain-mediated effects models for 285 cities in China from 2008 to 2020. The study found that, in general, the impact of different industrial land transfer modes on carbon emission has hysteresis and persistence. Agreement and listing transfer with government intervention can significantly exacerbate carbon emissions, while more market-based bidding and auction transfer can dampen carbon emissions. In terms of intermediary effects, the transfer of industrial land by agreement and listing will inhibit the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure, thus aggravating carbon emissions. The transfer of industrial land by bidding and auction will create barriers to entry and a crowding-out effect, promote the rationalization of industrial structure and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and moderate carbon emissions. In terms of city heterogeneity, there is urban heterogeneity in the impact of industrial land transfer on carbon emissions in cities with different economic types. Bidding and auction transfer for industrial land in both economically developed and less developed cities can promote carbon pollution. While the more developed urban economy makes the intermediary effect of industrial structure not significant. In the future, it is necessary to strictly control the scale of industrial land supply; the whole process supervision mechanism of industrial land allocation and differentiated industrial land supply strategies will provide useful experience for many developing countries in allocating industrial land to mitigate carbon emissions, generating effective contributions to global carbon emission reduction.

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of coupling coordinating between green transition of urban land use and urban land use efficiency: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta Region in China.

Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of the coupling coordination between the Green Transition of Urban Land Use and urban land use efficiency can help explore the future development direction of sustainable land use in cities. This paper constructs a theoretical framework for the coupling coordination between Green Transition of Urban Land Use and urban land use efficiency. We use several models, including the super-efficiency slack-based model, the coupling coordination degree model, the non-parametric kernel density estimation method, exploratory spatial data analysis, and the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to examine the real level of Green Transition of Urban Land Use and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2003 to 2020. Based on this, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of the two coupling coordination processes. The study found that (1) from 2003 to 2020, the overall trend of the coupling coordination between Green Transition of Urban Land Use and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region tended to be coordinated and developed, but still at a primary coordination level, with sufficient room for improvement in the future. (2) The coupling coordination level of each city in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2003 to 2020 showed obvious spatial non-equilibrium and correlation characteristics, and overall dynamic polarization effects were exhibited during the study period; the spatial pattern of high-value areas showed a regularity of prioritizing Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, gradually penetrating into Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province. (3) Economic and social factors have a positive influence on the degree of coupling coordination; natural factors and policy factors have a predominantly negative influence on the degree of coupling coordination. Research conclusions include establishing a regional collaborative development mechanism, utilizing the spatial spillover effect of leading cities; emphasizing science, education, and culture, strengthening the introduction of scientific and technological talents, increasing fiscal inputs, raising the level of economic development, and further expanding the driving effect of economic and social factors; and optimizing the layout of urban and rural construction land, developing urban land in an orderly manner, appropriately strengthening environmental regulation, thereby suppressing the negative effects caused by natural and policy factors.

The mechanisms and spatial-temporal effects of farmland spatial transition on agricultural carbon emission: based on 2018 counties in China.

Agricultural carbon emission reduction is an important issue in environmental protection and development in China and the world. The farmland spatial transition is an important path for agricultural modernization in developing countries such as China. How can farmland spatial transition promote agricultural carbon emission reduction? This paper aims to explore the mechanisms and spatial-temporal effects of farmland spatial transition on agricultural carbon emission density. To study the mechanisms and effects, we establish the random effect model, the threshold model, and the GTWR model with 2018 counties in China from 2000 to 2020. The research shows the farmland spatial transition mainly promotes agricultural carbon emission reduction through the interaction mechanism of large-scale production and specialized production, intermediary, and threshold mechanisms of agricultural technology. The result also shows that specialized farmland management is the main driving force of agricultural carbon emission reduction for farmland spatial transition. Moreover, the impact of farmland spatial transition on agricultural carbon emission reduction has significant spatial and temporal differences. The most significant regions are located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River plain, while the least are the north and southwest. Besides, the impact of the farmland spatial transition on agricultural carbon emissions reduction has a "V" shape over time, indicating China's agricultural carbon emission reduction is facing enormous economic and social development challenges. Our research reveals the various mechanisms and spatial-temporal effects of the transition of farmland spatial morphology on agricultural carbon emission with an evaluation framework, which is crucial to low-carbon agriculture with proper farmland use.

How does market-oriented allocation of industrial land affect carbon emissions? Evidence from China.

Industrial land serves as the fundamental basis for urban economic development and significantly contributes to carbon emissions. Effective market mechanisms are crucial for reducing carbon emissions. As such, investigating the impact of market-oriented allocation of industrial land (MAIL) on carbon emissions and its pathways is of substantial practical importance for global low-carbon development. This study constructs a theoretical framework examining the influence of MAIL on carbon emissions, focusing on 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2020. The spatial econometric model is employed to analyze the impact of MAIL on carbon emissions. The results show that: first, from a national perspective, MAIL not only reduces carbon emissions within a region but also in neighboring regions. Higher MAIL leads to more effective carbon emission reductions, which are persistent and hysteresis in time. Path analysis demonstrates that MAIL reduces carbon emissions by promoting industrial upgrading and technological innovation. Second, there are differences in the timeliness of carbon emission reduction effects in cities of different scales and regions. For cities of different scales, the carbon reduction effect of MAIL is more stable in large and medium cities compared to megacities and small cities, but in the short term, MAIL will hinder the industrial upgrading of megacities and thus is not conducive to carbon reduction. For different regional cities, the carbon reduction effect of MAIL is more stable in other regions except northeast region, and in the short term, MAIL will inhibit technological innovation in northeast region, which is not conducive to carbon reduction. Consequently, it is essential not only to design a top-level reform plan for MAIL in China but also to establish differentiated reform policies for MAIL, tailored to the unique characteristics of cities with different scales and regions, to effectively reduce carbon emissions.

Urban land use carbon emission intensity in China under the "double carbon" targets: spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend.

In-depth research on the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of urban land use carbon emission intensity (ULUCEI) can reveal the internal relationship between urban land use and carbon emissions, which is crucial for achieving carbon emission reduction and "double carbon" targets. This paper proposed a conceptual framework of ULUCEI; the methods of kernel density estimation (KDE), exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and spatial Markov chains were adopted for exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of China's ULUCEI from 2000 to 2017. The following conclusions are drawn through research. (1) There was an increasing trend in ULUCEI in China from 0.102 in 2000 to 0.283 in 2017. From the regional perspective, the ULUCEI in the eastern region is markedly higher than that in the central and western regions. Moreover, the results of nuclear density estimation indicate that China's ULUCEI shows an obvious upward and polarized trend. (2) China's ULUCEI shows a positive spatial autocorrelation. The types of spatial agglomeration include "high-high" agglomeration, "high-low" polarization, "low-high" collapse, and "low-low" homogeneity, and there are obvious disparities in the distribution rules of cities with different spatial agglomeration forms. (3) China's ULUCEI presents strong stability and "club convergence" trend. Moreover, spatial factors significantly affect the dynamic transition of China's ULUCEI, and its effect on the shifting upwards gradually enhances with increasing lag type. This paper therefore suggests that policymakers should formulate differentiated urban land low-carbon use models and carbon emission reduction policies to reduce ULUCEI.

Nudging Strategies for Arable Land Protection Behavior in China.

Arable land protection is critical to the sustainable development of agriculture in China and acceleration of the realization of the trinity protection goal of the quantity, quality, and ecology of arable land. As a new program of behavioral science to promote social development, nudge has gradually gained the favor of researchers and policy makers due to its unique advantages of small cost and substantial effect. However, current research and practical exploration of arable land protection behavior intervention based on the idea of nudging are still lacking. Implicit nudging strategies directly target the heuristic and analytic systems of arable land protection behavior of each stakeholder and possess more advantages than traditional intervention strategies. Therefore, this article designs six arable land protection behavior nudging strategies from the perspectives of cognition and motivation to realize the theoretical discussion of "generating medium-scale returns with nano-level investment". The nudging strategies of the cognitive perspective include default options, framing effects, and descriptive norms, while those of the motivation perspective aim to stimulate home and country, and heritage and benefit motives to promote arable land protection behavior of various stakeholders. The utility of nudge to arable land protection behavior may be controversial in practice. Therefore, the implementation in China should be based on the division of farmers, the number of options should be appropriate, and the external environment of arable land protection behavior should be fully considered.

Farmland Transfer, Social Security, and Households' Productive Investment: Based on China's CFPS Survey.

The willingness of farmers to transfer land on a big scale will be impacted when the rural social security system is not ideal, which will limit households' productive investment. This paper investigated the intermediate effects of social security on farmland transfer and productive investment by using zero-inflated models based on 4703 samples across China. Here are the findings: (1) Farmland transfer does not significantly impact productive investment without considering social society. (2) With the improvement in social security, farmland transfer significantly affects fixed investment but is not the same as households' current investment. (3) Under the social security constraints, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between farmland transfer and current investment. (4) The partial effect of farmland transfer on fixed investment is significantly positive, and it shows a trend of rising volatility. The government should re-examine the expected effects of the farmland transfer policy and focus on the farmers' worries about the future. Meanwhile, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the social security system and improve the multi-dimensional survival ability of farmers to give full play to the critical role of farmland transfer in current investment.

Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Green Economy Efficiency and Urban Land Development Intensity in China.

The improvement of green economic efficiency (GEE) should be realized under reasonable urban land development intensity (ULDI). Improving GEE can also help alleviate the negative externalities of excessive or unreasonable ULDI. Clarifying the interactive response mechanism between GEE and ULDI is a key link in regional sustainable development. Therefore, this paper uses the super-efficiency slack-based model (SBM) method, panel entropy method, and panel vector auto regression model to comprehensively analyze the interactive response relationship between GEE and ULDI in 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019. This paper finds that: (1) during the research period, both the GEE and ULDI showed a relatively obvious upward trend, which is manifested in the fact that ULDI increased year by year while GEE overall increased in volatility. The growth and evolution trend of ULDI and GEE has the characteristics of interaction and coordination; (2) there is a two-way interactive Granger causality between ULDI and GEE, showing a positive interactive response effect; and (3) both ULDI and GEE have positive inertial growth and self-enhancement mechanisms. In the long run, GEE has a greater impact on the change of ULDI.

Assessing the threshold effects of road infrastructure construction on farmland use transition: an empirical study in China.

China's rapid road infrastructure construction (RIC) occupies farmland and promotes the flow of rural development factors, which causes farmland use transition (FUT). Although prior research on RIC and their impact on FUT has attracted considerable attention, few studies have investigated the threshold effect of RIC on FUT. Threshold effect is the phenomenon that when the level of RIC reaches a certain critical value, the level of FUT changes abruptly. This paper uses China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018 to evaluate FUT. We also consider the spatial spillover effect of RIC and construct a panel threshold regression model to assess the impact of RIC on FUT. The results demonstrate that, considering the spatial spillover effect, RIC significantly promotes FUT, and the threshold effect first rises and then falls. Also, the threshold effect of RIC on FUT also has significant regional heterogeneity. There is a significant single threshold effect for RIC in central and western China, with threshold values of 0.90 and 0.84, respectively, while the spatial lag of RIC in eastern China has a single threshold with a value of 1.10. Our research indicates that the Chinese central government should promote the synergistic increase in RIC and sustainable farmland use by improving the accessibility of road infrastructure and basing RIC planning on the actual development needs of the region.

Measuring the urban land use efficiency of three urban agglomerations in China under carbon emissions.

On the basis of DMSP/OLS and NPP-VIIRS night light images, this study realized carbon emission estimations based on the municipal level from 1999 to 2017, compensating for the characteristics of incomplete statistical data and different statistical calibers. On this basis, the epsilon-based measure (EBM) super-efficiency model and the global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index are used to measure the urban land use efficiency (ULUE) and urban land total factor productivity (ULTFP) of the three urban agglomerations under the carbon emission constraints from 1999 to 2017. The following conclusions are drawn through research. (1) The correlation coefficient between the total value of night light pixels and energy consumption carbon emissions was relatively high in the three major urban agglomerations during 1999-2017, and they all passed the significance test of 1%. (2) The ULUE of the three major urban agglomerations generally shows a downward trend and then an upward trend, and spatial heterogeneity is obvious. The spatial distribution of the average level of ULUE is Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) > Yangtze River Delta Urban agglomeration (YRDUA) > Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban agglomeration (BTHUA). (3) The ULTFP of the three major urban agglomerations are all showing an increasing trend, but the geometric mean of URTFP in the PRDUA, BTHUA, and YRDUA decreases successively. Technological progress is the main driving force to promote the progress of ULTFP in each urban agglomeration. (4) The kernel density estimation shows a significant gap in ULUE between the three major urban agglomerations in China, and a phenomenon of polarization or multipolarization is observed. The main reason is the hysteresis of technology diffusion.

Association Between Incorrect Posture and Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Among Chinese Adolescents: Findings From a Large-Scale Population-Based Study.

Objectives: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) affects between 1 and 4% of adolescents, and severe curvature may be related to their adverse long-term outcomes. However, whether the change in body appearance is related to AIS remains largely unclear. We aimed to explore the association between incorrect posture and AIS among Chinese adolescents. Methods: Data were collected from a population-based (595,057) school scoliosis screening program in China. A sample of 3,871 adolescents was classified as cases with a diagnosed radiological lateral Cobb angle ≥10°, and 3,987 control subjects with a Cobb angle <10° were randomly selected from the screening system. Adolescents were accessed with demographic information and incorrect posture measured by visual inspection of physical signs, Adam's forward bending test (FBT), and the angle of trunk rotation (ATR). Logistic regression (LR) models were used to examine the associations. Results: Multivariate LR showed that shoulder-height difference, scapula tilt, lumbar concave, and pelvic tilt were associated with AIS. Adolescents with angle of thoracic rotation ≥5° [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 5.33-14.67, P < 0.001], thoracolumbar rotation ≥5° (AOR = 4.61-5.79, P < 0.001), or lumbar rotation ≥5° (AOR = 7.49-7.85, P < 0.001) were at especially higher risk for AIS than those with ATR <5°. Conclusions: Incorrect posture may be the potential risk factor for developing AIS, and ATR ≥5° was an important indicator for predicting the occurrence of scoliosis. Early monitoring of incorrect posture for school adolescents should be considered as a routine intervention to effectively identify the progress of scoliosis.

Predicting Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis among Chinese Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) affects 1%-4% of adolescents in the early stages of puberty, but there is still no effective prediction method. This study aimed to establish a prediction model and validated the accuracy and efficacy of this model in predicting the occurrence of AIS. METHODS: Data was collected from a population-based school scoliosis screening program for AIS in China. A sample of 884 children and adolescents with the radiological lateral Cobb angle ≥ 10° was classified as an AIS case, and 895 non-AIS subjects with a Cobb angle < 10° were randomly selected from the screening system. All selected subjects were screened by visual inspection of clinical signs, the Adam's forward-bending test (FBT), and the measurement of angle of trunk rotation (ATR). LR and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to preliminarily screen the influential factors, and LR models with different adjusted weights were established to predict the occurrence of AIS. RESULTS: Multivariate LR and ROC curves indicated that angle of thoracic rotation (adjusted odds ratios (AOR) = 5.18 - 10.06), angle of thoracolumbar rotation (AOR = 4.67 - 7.22), angle of lumbar rotation (AOR = 6.97 - 8.09), scapular tilt (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.75-0.80), shoulder-height difference, lumbar concave, and pelvic tilt were the risk predictors for AIS. LR models with different adjusted weights (by AOR, AUC, and AOR+AUC) performed similarly in predicting the occurrence of AIS compared with multivariate LR. The sensitivity (82.55%-83.27%), specificity (82.59%-83.33%), Youden's index (0.65-0.67), positive predictive value (82.85%-83.58%), negative predictive value (82.29%-83.03%), and total accuracy (82.57%-83.30%) manifested that LR could accurately identify patients with AIS. CONCLUSIONS: LR model is a relatively high accurate and feasible method for predicting AIS. Increased performance of LR models using clinically relevant variables offers the potential to early identify high-risk groups of AIS.

Prevalence of Incorrect Posture among Children and Adolescents: Finding from a Large Population-Based Study in China.

Evidence showed that bad posture in adulthood is often formed from the childhood, and individuals with severe incorrect posture may be associated with the progress of scoliosis. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of incorrect posture in Chinese children and adolescents and to describe the epidemiological findings stratified by the demographic characteristics. A total of 595,057 students were screened; the overall prevalence of incorrect posture in children and adolescents was 65.3%, and around 3.7% of the students were referred to radiography. Girls had a higher prevalence of incorrect posture than boys, students aged >10 years accounted for a higher rate of incorrect posture than students aged <10 years. We found that Chinese children and adolescents had a high prevalence of incorrect posture, with girls and older students being an especially high-risk group. Early interventions targeted for students with incorrect posture are urgently needed.